Heavy Monsoon Spell Expected from July 13: Met Office Issues Nationwide Alert
By TN Web Desk | July 11, 2025
As monsoon season continues to grip Pakistan, the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has forecasted a new spell of rain starting today, with conditions expected to intensify further from July 13. According to its latest advisory, the Met Office revealed that moisture-laden winds from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal have begun penetrating into various regions of the country and are likely to strengthen over the coming days. A fresh westerly system is also predicted to enter Pakistan by Friday evening, increasing the potential for heavy and widespread monsoon activity.
Rainfall Expected Across the Country
The upcoming weather pattern is expected to bring scattered to widespread rain accompanied by strong winds and thunderstorms across multiple provinces, including Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Balochistan, Sindh, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Azad Jammu & Kashmir. Many areas will also face the possibility of heavy to very heavy rainfall, which could lead to dangerous conditions such as flash floods, urban flooding, landslides, and damage to infrastructure.
Region-by-Region Forecast
Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan
The northernmost regions of Pakistan are expected to experience significant rainfall between July 11 and 17. The PMD has forecast moderate to heavy showers in areas including Neelum Valley, Muzaffarabad, Rawalakot, Poonch, Hattian, Bagh, Haveli, Sudhanoti, Kotli, Bhimber, and Mirpur.
In Gilgit-Baltistan, regions such as Diamir, Astore, Ghizer, Skardu, Hunza, Gilgit, Ghanche, and Shigar will receive moderate rain and thunderstorms, with chances of isolated heavy falls, especially during the night of July 11 and from July 13 to 16.
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP)
Most districts of KP are also expected to be affected by the monsoon rains. The PMD has issued warnings for areas including Dir, Chitral, Swat, Kohistan, Malakand, Shangla, Abbottabad, Peshawar, Mardan, Nowshera, Bannu, D.I. Khan, and tribal regions such as Bajaur, Khyber, Orakzai, and Waziristan. These areas will likely experience moderate to heavy rain, which could pose risks of landslides and flooding.
Punjab and Islamabad
Central and northern Punjab, as well as the federal capital Islamabad, are predicted to see widespread rain accompanied by heavy to very heavy falls between July 11 and 17. Affected districts include Rawalpindi, Murree, Attock, Lahore, Faisalabad, Sialkot, Gujranwala, and Sargodha. Southern Punjab areas, such as Bahawalpur, DG Khan, Multan, and Rahim Yar Khan, may also experience isolated heavy showers today and again from July 13 onward.
Balochistan
Parts of northeastern and southern Balochistan—including Quetta, Zhob, Kalat, Khuzdar, Lasbela, and Dera Bugti—are expected to receive rainfall along with scattered heavy falls. This rainfall may continue intermittently from today until July 16.
Sindh
The Met Office forecasts moderate rain and thunderstorms in Sindh, particularly in cities like Karachi, Hyderabad, Larkana, and Sukkur from July 15 to 17. Though not as intense as in other regions, the rains may still lead to localized waterlogging in urban areas.
Possible Impacts and Warnings
The PMD has issued several warnings associated with the upcoming monsoon activity:
Flash Floods in Hilly Regions
Heavy rain from July 14 to 17 could trigger flash floods in mountainous and hilly regions such as Murree, Galliyat, Swat, Dir, Kohistan, Abbottabad, Rawalpindi, Islamabad, and northeastern parts of Punjab and Balochistan. Streams and nullahs in these regions may overflow, creating dangerous situations for residents.
Urban Flooding in Major Cities
Urban flooding is a serious concern in low-lying areas of cities like Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Lahore, Gujranwala, Sialkot, Faisalabad, Nowshera, and Peshawar. Continuous rainfall over several days may overwhelm existing drainage systems, resulting in severe water accumulation.
Landslides and Mudslides
The hilly and mountainous regions of KP, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Kashmir are particularly at risk of landslides and mudslides due to the intense rainfall. These incidents may cause road blockages and isolate certain communities.
Wind Damage and Lightning Strikes
Strong gusty winds and frequent lightning strikes may pose a threat to weak infrastructure, including old buildings, billboards, electric poles, and solar panels. Authorities have advised people to avoid sheltering under trees or near electric installations during thunderstorms.
Advice to Farmers, Tourists, and General Public
The PMD has issued the following advisory for different groups:
-
Farmers are advised to plan irrigation and harvesting activities in accordance with the forecast to minimize crop damage.
-
Tourists and travellers should avoid visiting vulnerable areas such as Murree, Galliyat, Swat, and Neelum Valley during the forecast period.
-
Motorists are urged to drive carefully on wet and slippery roads and avoid traveling in flood-prone regions.
-
Residents of flood-prone areas should remain alert and be prepared to evacuate if necessary.
All relevant provincial and district disaster management authorities have been asked to stay on high alert and ensure readiness of emergency response equipment and personnel.
NDMA’s Flood Alert and National Response
The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), through its National Emergencies Operation Centre (NEOC), has also issued an impact-based weather alert. The NDMA anticipates widespread moderate to heavy rains across Pakistan, driven by high moisture levels from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, in combination with a westerly weather system entering from the northwest.
Major River Flooding Expected
NEOC’s hydrological outlook suggests that the combined effect of these systems may cause water levels to rise in all major rivers including:
-
Indus River
-
Kabul River
-
Jhelum River (especially upstream of Mangla Dam)
-
Chenab River
Tarbela, Taunsa, and Guddu barrages are currently at low flood levels, while Kalabagh and Chashma are already experiencing medium flood levels. NEOC expects Taunsa to escalate to a medium flood stage in the coming days.
Additionally, the Chenab at Marala and Khanki and the Kabul River at Nowshera may also swell to low flood levels. In the northern areas, River Swat and River Panjkora, along with their tributaries, are likely to see a significant rise in water levels.
Flood Risks in South Punjab and Balochistan
In southern Punjab, especially around DG Khan and Rajanpur, hill torrents could get reactivated, posing medium to high flood threats. Similarly, rivers and streams in northeastern Balochistan (including Jhal Magsi, Sibi, Qila Saifullah, Musakhel, and Zhob) may experience high flows.
Southern Balochistan districts like Khuzdar, Awaran, Lasbela, and Qalat could also face localized flash flooding due to intense downpours.
Dam Storage Status
According to the latest update:
-
Tarbela Dam is currently at 74% storage capacity.
-
Mangla Dam is at 44% of its storage capacity.
Authorities continue to monitor reservoir levels and inflows to ensure that necessary measures are in place to manage water safely and reduce risks of overflow or dam-related emergencies.
NDMA’s Preparedness Measures
The NDMA has taken the following steps to prepare for potential flooding and other disasters:
-
Directed district administrations to ensure dewatering pumps and machinery are available and operational in urban areas likely to experience flooding.
-
Advised residents living near rivers, nullahs, and canals to prepare emergency evacuation plans and stock essential supplies, including food, water, medicine, and important documents.
-
Instructed disaster management authorities to maintain constant coordination with local weather offices and issue timely alerts via mass media and the Pak NDMA Disaster Alert mobile app.
-
Urged citizens to avoid crossing bridges, low-lying causeways, or water-covered roads during and after heavy rainfall.
-
Called on community leaders to identify safe shelters and prepare for emergency evacuation drills in vulnerable areas.
Final Word from Authorities
Both the PMD and NDMA have emphasized the importance of remaining vigilant, especially in areas prone to flooding or landslides. The authorities continue to monitor the evolving weather conditions and assure the public that timely alerts will be issued to help minimize risk to life and property.
As Pakistan braces for an intense spell of monsoon rains from July 13 onward, the public is urged to cooperate with local authorities, stay updated through official channels, and take all necessary precautions to protect themselves and their families.
Heavy Monsoon Spell Expected from July 13: Met Office Issues Nationwide Alert
By TN Web Desk | July 11, 2025
As monsoon season continues to grip Pakistan, the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has forecasted a new spell of rain starting today, with conditions expected to intensify further from July 13. According to its latest advisory, the Met Office revealed that moisture-laden winds from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal have begun penetrating into various regions of the country and are likely to strengthen over the coming days. A fresh westerly system is also predicted to enter Pakistan by Friday evening, increasing the potential for heavy and widespread monsoon activity.
Rainfall Expected Across the Country
The upcoming weather pattern is expected to bring scattered to widespread rain accompanied by strong winds and thunderstorms across multiple provinces, including Punjab, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Balochistan, Sindh, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Azad Jammu & Kashmir. Many areas will also face the possibility of heavy to very heavy rainfall, which could lead to dangerous conditions such as flash floods, urban flooding, landslides, and damage to infrastructure.
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Region-by-Region Forecast
Kashmir and Gilgit-Baltistan
The northernmost regions of Pakistan are expected to experience significant rainfall between July 11 and 17. The PMD has forecast moderate to heavy showers in areas including Neelum Valley, Muzaffarabad, Rawalakot, Poonch, Hattian, Bagh, Haveli, Sudhanoti, Kotli, Bhimber, and Mirpur.
In Gilgit-Baltistan, regions such as Diamir, Astore, Ghizer, Skardu, Hunza, Gilgit, Ghanche, and Shigar will receive moderate rain and thunderstorms, with chances of isolated heavy falls, especially during the night of July 11 and from July 13 to 16.
Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP)
Most districts of KP are also expected to be affected by the monsoon rains. The PMD has issued warnings for areas including Dir, Chitral, Swat, Kohistan, Malakand, Shangla, Abbottabad, Peshawar, Mardan, Nowshera, Bannu, D.I. Khan, and tribal regions such as Bajaur, Khyber, Orakzai, and Waziristan. These areas will likely experience moderate to heavy rain, which could pose risks of landslides and flooding.
Punjab and Islamabad
Central and northern Punjab, as well as the federal capital Islamabad, are predicted to see widespread rain accompanied by heavy to very heavy falls between July 11 and 17. Affected districts include Rawalpindi, Murree, Attock, Lahore, Faisalabad, Sialkot, Gujranwala, and Sargodha. Southern Punjab areas, such as Bahawalpur, DG Khan, Multan, and Rahim Yar Khan, may also experience isolated heavy showers today and again from July 13 onward.
Balochistan
Parts of northeastern and southern Balochistan—including Quetta, Zhob, Kalat, Khuzdar, Lasbela, and Dera Bugti—are expected to receive rainfall along with scattered heavy falls. This rainfall may continue intermittently from today until July 16.
Sindh
The Met Office forecasts moderate rain and thunderstorms in Sindh, particularly in cities like Karachi, Hyderabad, Larkana, and Sukkur from July 15 to 17. Though not as intense as in other regions, the rains may still lead to localized waterlogging in urban areas.
Possible Impacts and Warnings
The PMD has issued several warnings associated with the upcoming monsoon activity:
Flash Floods in Hilly Regions
Heavy rain from July 14 to 17 could trigger flash floods in mountainous and hilly regions such as Murree, Galliyat, Swat, Dir, Kohistan, Abbottabad, Rawalpindi, Islamabad, and northeastern parts of Punjab and Balochistan. Streams and nullahs in these regions may overflow, creating dangerous situations for residents.
Urban Flooding in Major Cities
Urban flooding is a serious concern in low-lying areas of cities like Islamabad, Rawalpindi, Lahore, Gujranwala, Sialkot, Faisalabad, Nowshera, and Peshawar. Continuous rainfall over several days may overwhelm existing drainage systems, resulting in severe water accumulation.
Landslides and Mudslides
The hilly and mountainous regions of KP, Gilgit-Baltistan, and Kashmir are particularly at risk of landslides and mudslides due to the intense rainfall. These incidents may cause road blockages and isolate certain communities.
Wind Damage and Lightning Strikes
Strong gusty winds and frequent lightning strikes may pose a threat to weak infrastructure, including old buildings, billboards, electric poles, and solar panels. Authorities have advised people to avoid sheltering under trees or near electric installations during thunderstorms.
Advice to Farmers, Tourists, and General Public
The PMD has issued the following advisory for different groups:
-
Farmers are advised to plan irrigation and harvesting activities in accordance with the forecast to minimize crop damage.
-
Tourists and travellers should avoid visiting vulnerable areas such as Murree, Galliyat, Swat, and Neelum Valley during the forecast period.
-
Motorists are urged to drive carefully on wet and slippery roads and avoid traveling in flood-prone regions.
-
Residents of flood-prone areas should remain alert and be prepared to evacuate if necessary.
All relevant provincial and district disaster management authorities have been asked to stay on high alert and ensure readiness of emergency response equipment and personnel.
NDMA’s Flood Alert and National Response
The National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA), through its National Emergencies Operation Centre (NEOC), has also issued an impact-based weather alert. The NDMA anticipates widespread moderate to heavy rains across Pakistan, driven by high moisture levels from the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, in combination with a westerly weather system entering from the northwest.
Major River Flooding Expected
NEOC’s hydrological outlook suggests that the combined effect of these systems may cause water levels to rise in all major rivers including:
-
Indus River
-
Kabul River
-
Jhelum River (especially upstream of Mangla Dam)
-
Chenab River
Tarbela, Taunsa, and Guddu barrages are currently at low flood levels, while Kalabagh and Chashma are already experiencing medium flood levels. NEOC expects Taunsa to escalate to a medium flood stage in the coming days.
Additionally, the Chenab at Marala and Khanki and the Kabul River at Nowshera may also swell to low flood levels. In the northern areas, River Swat and River Panjkora, along with their tributaries, are likely to see a significant rise in water levels.
Flood Risks in South Punjab and Balochistan
In southern Punjab, especially around DG Khan and Rajanpur, hill torrents could get reactivated, posing medium to high flood threats. Similarly, rivers and streams in northeastern Balochistan (including Jhal Magsi, Sibi, Qila Saifullah, Musakhel, and Zhob) may experience high flows.
Southern Balochistan districts like Khuzdar, Awaran, Lasbela, and Qalat could also face localized flash flooding due to intense downpours.
Dam Storage Status
According to the latest update:
-
Tarbela Dam is currently at 74% storage capacity.
-
Mangla Dam is at 44% of its storage capacity.
Authorities continue to monitor reservoir levels and inflows to ensure that necessary measures are in place to manage water safely and reduce risks of overflow or dam-related emergencies.
NDMA’s Preparedness Measures
The NDMA has taken the following steps to prepare for potential flooding and other disasters:
-
Directed district administrations to ensure dewatering pumps and machinery are available and operational in urban areas likely to experience flooding.
-
Advised residents living near rivers, nullahs, and canals to prepare emergency evacuation plans and stock essential supplies, including food, water, medicine, and important documents.
-
Instructed disaster management authorities to maintain constant coordination with local weather offices and issue timely alerts via mass media and the Pak NDMA Disaster Alert mobile app.
-
Urged citizens to avoid crossing bridges, low-lying causeways, or water-covered roads during and after heavy rainfall.
-
Called on community leaders to identify safe shelters and prepare for emergency evacuation drills in vulnerable areas.
Final Word from Authorities
Both the PMD and NDMA have emphasized the importance of remaining vigilant, especially in areas prone to flooding or landslides. The authorities continue to monitor the evolving weather conditions and assure the public that timely alerts will be issued to help minimize risk to life and property.
